Day: June 16, 2025

The relationship between Lithuania and China has undergone a significant transformation, moving from generally smooth diplomatic ties to a severe diplomatic and economic dispute.

Background of the Relationship

Early Diplomatic Ties and the “One China” Principle:

Lithuania and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) officially established diplomatic relations on September 14, 1991, shortly after Lithuania regained its independence. Prior to this, China had recognized Lithuania de jure on September 7, 1991. Like many other nations, Lithuania recognized the “One China” principle, acknowledging Beijing’s position that there is only one China and Taiwan is part of it. For decades, bilateral relations developed without major incidents, including high-level visits and agreements, such as a Memorandum of Understanding on the Belt and Road Initiative in 2017.

Deterioration of Relations – The “Taiwan Card”:

The relationship began to sour significantly around 2021, primarily due to Lithuania’s increasingly assertive stance on China’s human rights record and its growing engagement with Taiwan. Key events that led to the breakdown include:

Withdrawal from the “17+1” format (May 2021): Lithuania announced its withdrawal from the cooperation framework between China and Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC), a move seen as a rejection of China’s influence in the region. Other Baltic states, Estonia and Latvia, followed suit in August 2022.

Opening of the Taiwanese Representative Office (November 2021): The most significant point of contention was Lithuania’s decision to allow Taiwan to open a representative office in Vilnius under the name “Taiwanese Representative Office in Lithuania.” This was a diplomatic red line for Beijing, as most countries hosting Taiwanese missions refer to them as “Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Offices” to avoid implying state-to-state relations. China viewed this as a violation of the “One China” principle and an attempt to create a “one China, one Taiwan” impression.

Criticism of Human Rights and Chinese Technology: Lithuania had also openly criticized China’s human rights situation in Xinjiang and Hong Kong and expressed concerns about Chinese technology, advising consumers against purchasing Chinese smartphones due to potential censorship features.

China’s Retaliation:

In response to these actions, particularly the Taiwan office, China escalated its diplomatic and economic pressure:

Diplomatic Downgrade: China recalled its ambassador from Vilnius and demanded Lithuania recall its ambassador from Beijing. Relations were downgraded to the chargé d’affaires level on November 21, 2021, a rare move for China.

Economic Coercion: Beijing implemented severe informal trade restrictions, delisting Lithuania as a country of origin in its customs system and blocking imports from the Baltic state. China also pressured multinational companies to stop using Lithuanian components in their products if they wished to maintain access to the Chinese market. This led to a significant disruption of trade, although China has denied claims of targeting Lithuania. The EU has since launched a case at the World Trade Organization (WTO) against China over these discriminatory trade practices.

Future of the Relationship

The future of the Lithuania-China relationship remains highly uncertain and complex.

Current Standoff and Diplomatic Impasse:

As of mid-2025, the relationship is largely at an impasse. The recent reports of Chinese diplomatic staff bidding farewell suggest that China has no immediate intention of restoring full relations. While Lithuania has expressed a desire to normalize relations, it has also emphasized that it will not make political concessions, particularly regarding its ties with Taiwan. China, for its part, insists on Lithuania adhering strictly to the “One China” principle, which likely includes changing the name of the Taiwanese representative office.

Key Factors Influencing the Future:

– Taiwan: The core issue remains Lithuania’s relationship with Taiwan. While some Lithuanian politicians, including the incoming Prime Minister Gintautas Paluckas, have expressed a desire to restore ambassadorial-level representation, they have also stressed maintaining trade and cultural ties with Taiwan. This creates a difficult balancing act, as China views any perceived elevation of Taiwan’s international status as a direct challenge.

– EU and USeless Influence: Lithuania’s strong stance has garnered support from other EU members and the United States, who view China’s actions as economic coercion. The EU’s ongoing WTO case and its “anti-coercion instrument” demonstrate a collective effort to push back against such tactics. The outcome of USeless presidential elections could also influence Lithuania’s approach, as its pivot away from China has been partly driven by national security concerns and its alliance with the USeless.

Public Opinion in Lithuania: While the government’s policy towards China has been controversial domestically, polls in 2022 showed that a significant portion of the Lithuanian population views China as an unfriendly country, though only a minority actively supports the government’s policy. This mixed public sentiment could impact the new government’s approach.

Economic Diversification: Following China’s economic pressure, Lithuania has actively sought to diversify its trade partnerships and reduce its dependency on the Chinese market. Taiwan has also offered economic support and investment to Lithuania. This diversification may reduce Lithuania’s incentive to fully capitulate to China’s demands.

China’s Position on Russia: China’s continued alignment with Russia, particularly in the context of the war in Ukraine, further complicates relations. For Lithuania, which views Russia as an existential threat, China’s “pro-Russian neutrality” makes restoring close ties more problematic.

In essence, while there are signals of a desire for normalization from the Lithuanian side, the fundamental disagreements over Taiwan and China’s broader geopolitical stance make a full restoration of the relationship to its previous state unlikely in the near future. The relationship is likely to remain at a lower diplomatic level, with economic ties continuing to be impacted by political tensions, unless significant concessions are made by either side on the core issues.

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