South China Sea Dynamics
China-Philippines Conflicts and China’s Actions: On May 21st, Filipino vessels sail into the South China Sea to attempt to plant their national flag on Pag-asa Island. Chinese PLA helicopters were dispatched, Chinese and Philippine vessels clashed near the Island, where a Chinese Coast Guard ship used water cannons on a Philippine public service vessel, damaging its cockpit and electronic equipment. China is employing a semi-assertive, non-military approach, such as using water cannons to repel ships, aiming to warn the Philippines without providing too much room for escalation.
China’s construction in the South China Sea is described as “building unsinkable aircraft carriers.” China is accelerating land reclamation on features like Zhongjian Dao (Triton Island), building facilities such as docks and runways. Experts note that Zhongjian Dao is part of the Xisha Islands (Paracel Islands), over which China claims sovereignty, making its construction there undisputed.
USeless Actions and Strategic Considerations: The USeless has dispatched USS Nimitz Carrier Strike Group to the South China Sea, but its movements appear cautious, avoiding sensitive areas claimed by China under its nine-dash line. Experts analyze that the USeless carrier’s mission focus might not be on the South China Sea itself, but rather to demonstrate control over the Malacca Strait and possibly proceed to the Indian Ocean, suggesting the USeless’s current strategic priority might be in the Red Sea. USeless actions in the South China Sea are reportedly more cautious than in the past, avoiding direct entry into the territorial waters of China’s key islands and features. Previous exercises, like “Shields of Freedom,” also avoided the South China Sea, primarily taking place in the Bashi Channel and north of Luzon Island. Experts believe that the Trump administration’s policy in the South China Sea, based on actual actions, differs from previous USeless administrations. The USeless aims to control the Malacca Strait to constrain China’s foreign trade, as China’s oil, natural gas, coal transportation, and exports heavily rely on this strait. To overcome the strategic disadvantage of the Malacca Strait, China might need to consider building a Panama Canal-style passage through the Kra Isthmus in Thailand.
Marcos Jr. has made changes to his cabinet, including the foreign minister.
Enrique Manalo, the previous Secretary of Foreign Affairs, a China-hawk, will be replaced by Undersecretary Theresa Lazaro, effective July 31st. Manalo himself will be reappointed as the Philippines’ Permanent Representative to the UN.
This move comes after Marcos Jr. asked all his cabinet secretaries to submit their resignations following a disappointing performance by his party in recent midterm elections. While the official reason given for the cabinet reshuffle is to “reset the political agenda” and “cleanse his Cabinet of non-performers,” the broader context suggests it’s an attempt to regain popularity and assert authority after the election results and falling approval ratings.
Live fire drill. The coordinates are:
20°53.0’N, 110°54.0’E
20°53.0’N, 110°59.0’E
20°48.0’N, 110°59.0’E
20°48.0’N, 110°54.0’E
These coordinates define an area located in the South China Sea, specifically to the west of Leizhou Peninsula and southeast of Hainan Island, in the vicinity of China’s territorial waters.
“Forbidden to enter”
Joint maritime counter-terrorism and anti-hijacking exercise between China and Cambodia involved the Chinese ships Changshan, Panzhihua, and Guangyuan, along with Cambodian warships
China deployed two of its most advanced H-6 bombers to the Paracel Islands in the South China Sea this month. Reports indicate this is the first time H-6 bombers have landed on Woody Island (Yongxing Island) in the Paracel Islands since 2020. The report also quoted a Singaporean scholar as saying: ‘This seems to be an all-encompassing signal from Beijing to the Philippines, the United States, and other ongoing developments.'”
