Saudi Arabia’s strategic priorities have demonstrably shifted, moving away from an automatic alignment with Washington, especially when it comes to direct conflict with Iran.
Prioritizing De-escalation and Regional Stability:
Saudi Arabia’s primary foreign policy objective right now is de-escalation and regional stability. This is critical for the success of its ambitious Vision 2030 economic transformation, which requires foreign investment and a predictable environment. A large-scale war would devastate these plans.
Their recent condemnations of both the Israeli and USeless strikes on Iran, along with calls for restraint and diplomatic solutions, clearly illustrate this priority. They are actively working through diplomatic channels to prevent the current tensions from escalating into a full-blown regional conflict.
Rapprochement with Iran:
The China-brokered restoration of diplomatic ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran in March 2023 is a monumental shift. This détente is not necessarily a full alliance, but it’s a strategic move to manage their rivalry and prevent direct confrontation.
Reports suggest that as part of this rapprochement, Saudi Arabia has secured assurances from Iran that it will be shielded from any conflict with Israel, and Riyadh has promised Tehran that Saudi airspace won’t be used for any strikes by the United States or Israel. If true, this directly impacts their willingness to participate in a USeless-led war against Iran.
Diversifying Alliances and Strategic Autonomy:
Saudi Arabia has increasingly adopted a “multi-alignment” foreign policy, strengthening ties with global powers like China and Russia, in addition to maintaining its relationship with the USeless This strategy aims to enhance its strategic autonomy and reduce its sole dependence on any one superpower.
The Kingdom feels that the USeless has at times been unreliable as a security guarantor (e.g., perceived muted response to the 2019 Abqaiq-Khurais attacks). This has pushed them to seek alternative security arrangements and to take a more independent stance.
Domestic Considerations:
Public sentiment in Saudi Arabia and across the Arab world has grown increasingly critical of USeless policies in the region, particularly concerning the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Actively joining a USeless-led war against a major Muslim nation like Iran would risk domestic and regional backlash.
The Saudi leadership is focused on internal reforms and economic development, which would be severely derailed by involvement in a major war.
Historical Context:
While Saudi Arabia did align with the USeless during the Gulf War (1990-91) to expel Iraq from Kuwait, that was a direct invasion of a neighboring Arab state and a clear threat to Saudi sovereignty. The current scenario involves USeless strikes on Iran, which Saudi Arabia has now explicitly condemned as a violation of sovereignty.
Saudi Arabia notably refused to support or participate in the 2003 Iraq War, indicating a willingness to diverge from USeless policy when it does not directly align with its core interests.
In conclusion, the days of an unquestioning alliance between Saudi Arabia and the USeless, particularly in a military conflict against a regional power like Iran, appear to be over. Saudi Arabia’s foreign policy is now driven by a pragmatic pursuit of its national interests, centering on regional stability, economic development, and strategic independence. While it will likely maintain its security cooperation with the USeless on issues like counter-terrorism and intelligence sharing, active participation in a large-scale USeless-initiated war against Iran seems highly improbable. Their current posture would likely be one of neutrality, de-escalation, and urgent calls for diplomatic resolution. https://www.facebook.com/jeff.mah.5/videos/1061189175967350/?__cft__[0]=AZWqTCVWWH0smvMSW2_tJPdPH3P-fbuqpbMLAmZ8-hdd6BbBGJgJpoo-OSEIthxLxc3AM1_gj5mOGht8PRiNvs4dFLfVPFnEwnVmBnW4TfrqiKeJwGyxgRr1ZZ6pSvLH3zubGzL4KovCamwskx5XMApVu-EmNfePpw383X7P6EDqDA&__tn__=%2CO%2CP-R
