China is rapidly advancing its satellite internet capabilities with several ambitious mega-constellations under development, most notably Guowang and G60 (also known as SpaceSail or Qianfan). While a definitive single “commercial availability” date for a nationwide Chinese satellite internet service is not yet set, here’s what the current information suggests:
Regional Service:
Geespace (a subsidiary of Geely) has already begun commercial deployment in regions, including the Middle East (as of June 2024) and plans to expand into Southeast Asia and Africa in the coming years.
The G60 (SpaceSail) constellation aims to provide regional service by the end of 2025. They have already signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Brazil for service starting in 2026 and are in business negotiations with over 30 countries.
Global Service:
The G60 (SpaceSail) constellation has a stated goal of providing global service by the end of 2027. They plan to have 1,296 satellites in orbit by then, increasing to 15,000 by 2030 to offer direct-to-mobile service.
The Guowang constellation, run by state-owned China Satellite Services, is also aiming for global coverage, with a massive plan of 12,992 satellites. While test launches are ongoing, a specific global commercial launch date is less defined than for G60, but their overall timeline aims for completion by 2030.
Competition: China’s efforts are seen as a direct challenge to SpaceX’s Starlink and Amazon’s Project Kuiper, aiming to compete in the global satellite internet market.
“Digital Iron Curtain”: Some analysts express concern that China’s satellite internet services could extend its model of digital authoritarianism and censorship globally.
Rapid Development: China’s commercial space sector is growing rapidly, with significant government support and increased investor interest, indicating a strong commitment to these projects.
In summary, we can expect to see regional commercial availability of Chinese satellite internet services potentially by late 2025 or 2026, with global coverage targeted by late 2027 or 2030 as their mega-constellations are fully deployed.
