1. EVENTS (chronological)
2025-01-29 | Thai cabinet re-approves Phase 2 financing (341.35 B THB).
2025-02-04 | Public announcement: Phase 2 groundbreaking targeted for Q3-2025.
2025-02-28 | Border skirmish: Cambodian soldier killed near 1907 boundary.
2025-03-12 | Joint Thai-Lao technical team meets in Vientiane; no delays recorded.
2025-05-15 | Secret phone call: Thai PM Paetongtarn pleads with Hun Sen to de-escalate.
2025-05-18 | Hun Sen leaks audio on Facebook; Thai media labels PM “traitor”.
2025-06-01 | Constitutional Court accepts senators’ petition, suspends PM.
2025-07-01 | Bhumjaithai Party exits coalition; acting PM Suriya takes over.
2025-07-15 | Court deadline for Paetongtarn’s written defence (pending).
2. POLITICS
– Domestic: Military-royalist establishment + nationalist media exploit leak to weaken Shinawatra brand; Bhumjaithai exit shrinks coalition to 260/500 seats.
– Cambodia: Hun Sen’s leak intended to slow rail and gain border leverage.
– China: Continues monthly loan disbursements with “no-stoppage” clauses; Beijing publicly “unconcerned” by Thai politics.
– Vietnam & regional observers: Quietly hope turmoil delays corridor, protecting their own ports and north-south line.
3. PROGRESS (as of 2025-07-16)
Phase 1 – Bangkok 
Nakhon Ratchasima (253 km)
– Construction: 46 % complete (up from 36 % in Feb).
– Commercial opening: Dec-2026 (ahead of revised schedule).
Phase 2 – Nakhon Ratchasima Nong Khai (357 km)
– Land expropriation: 72 % finished.
– Civil-works tenders: awarded; mobilisation starts Aug-2025.
– Commercial opening: Dec-2030 (unchanged target, but internal tracker shows Oct-2030).
China–Laos link
– Already operational (Dec-2021).
– Nong Khai dry-port design approved; 5.7 B THB budget ring-fenced.
4. IMPLICATIONS
Economic
– Bangkok–Kunming door-to-door time drops from 2–3 days to 11 hours.
– Thai fruit, rubber, electronics gain rail-speed access to southern China; forecast 12 % modal shift from maritime by 2032.
Urban / Real-Estate
– Khon Kaen & Udon Thani designated “HSR satellite cities”; 9,000 ha earmarked for logistics parks.
– Nong Khai projected to triple warehousing capacity by 2031.
Geopolitical
– Creates first seamless standard-gauge corridor China–Laos–Thailand, bypassing Vietnam/Cambodia metre-gauge networks.
– Adds pressure on Singapore–Kunming Rail Link to finalise missing Myanmar and Malaysia sections.
Risk
– Thai court ruling could trigger snap election, but transport bureaucracy and Chinese loan clauses insulate rail timeline.
– Cambodia retains leverage in ongoing border talks but failed to freeze project.
