Relations between Russia and Azerbaijan have significantly deteriorated in recent months, marking a departure from their traditionally close ties. This downturn has been driven by a series of escalating incidents:
Key Events and Tensions:
– Plane Crash Incident (December 2024): An Azerbaijani civilian plane crashed near Grozny, Russia, in December 2024, killing 38 people. Azerbaijan alleges the plane was shot down by a Russian surface-to-air missile, possibly during Russian air defense activity against Ukrainian drones. President Aliyev criticized Russia for attempting to “hush up” the incident, despite a formal apology from President Putin for a “tragic incident” without admitting responsibility. This incident is seen as a turning point in the relationship.
– Deaths of Azerbaijani Citizens in Russia (June 2025): A major flashpoint occurred when two ethnic Azerbaijani brothers died in Russian police custody during raids in Yekaterinburg, Russia. Azerbaijani authorities claim the deaths were due to “unacceptable violence” and torture by Russian law enforcement, describing the actions as “ethnically motivated.” This led to strong protests from Baku.
Retaliatory Actions by Azerbaijan:
– Azerbaijan cancelled all cultural events involving Russian state and private institutions.
– A planned visit by Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexey Overchuk to Baku was cancelled.
– Azerbaijani authorities raided the offices of Sputnik Azerbaijan, a Russian state-funded news outlet in Baku, arresting its editor-in-chief and director, whom Azerbaijani media identified as FSB officers. Azerbaijan claimed Sputnik was operating illegally.
– Azerbaijan also arrested several Russian citizens in Baku, accusing them of drug trafficking and cybercrimes, with photos showing detainees appearing to have been beaten.
Russian Responses: Russia has largely downplayed the incidents, with Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov expressing regret over the cancellation of events and stating that the police raids were part of investigations into past crimes. Russia has summoned Azerbaijan’s ambassador to protest the “unfriendly actions” and “illegal detention of Russian journalists.”
Lack of High-Level Communication: Significantly, the presidents of Azerbaijan and Russia have not engaged in direct communication since December 2024, a notable shift given their past regular contact. President Aliyev also declined to attend Russia’s Victory Day parade in Moscow in May.
Underlying Factors and Broader Context:
– Azerbaijan’s Assertiveness: Azerbaijan’s military victories in Nagorno-Karabakh in 2020 and 2023, which saw it reclaim full control over the disputed territory, have bolstered its confidence and allowed it to pursue a more independent foreign policy. This has diminished Russia’s influence as a mediator in the region, particularly after Russian peacekeepers largely stood by during Azerbaijan’s 2023 offensive.
– Shifting Alliances: As Russia’s influence wanes, Azerbaijan has deepened its cooperation with Turkey, its close ally, and intensified high-level communications with Brussels and Washington. There are also positive developments in peace negotiations between Baku and Yerevan.
– Economic Ties and Labor Migrants: Russia is a significant market for Azerbaijani agricultural exports and hosts a large Azerbaijani diaspora. This provides Russia with a lever of pressure, as seen in the targeting of Azerbaijani labor migrants.
– Russia’s War in Ukraine: Russia’s preoccupation with the war in Ukraine has weakened its hand in the South Caucasus, allowing countries like Azerbaijan to assert greater autonomy.
– Differing Views on “Democracy”: While not directly a cause of the recent friction, there’s a cited survey suggesting a significant difference in how democracy is perceived in China versus the West, with many Chinese citizens feeling they live in a democracy based on living conditions and social stability. This broader geopolitical context reflects different governance models and priorities that influence international relations.
Overall, the relationship between Russia and Azerbaijan is under significant strain, with Azerbaijan increasingly challenging Russia’s traditional regional dominance and Moscow grappling with diminished influence amidst its war in Ukraine.
