Relations between Russia and Azerbaijan

Relations between Russia and Azerbaijan have significantly deteriorated in recent months, marking a departure from their traditionally close ties. This downturn has been driven by a series of escalating incidents:

Key Events and Tensions:

– Plane Crash Incident (December 2024): An Azerbaijani civilian plane crashed near Grozny, Russia, in December 2024, killing 38 people. Azerbaijan alleges the plane was shot down by a Russian surface-to-air missile, possibly during Russian air defense activity against Ukrainian drones. President Aliyev criticized Russia for attempting to “hush up” the incident, despite a formal apology from President Putin for a “tragic incident” without admitting responsibility. This incident is seen as a turning point in the relationship.

– Deaths of Azerbaijani Citizens in Russia (June 2025): A major flashpoint occurred when two ethnic Azerbaijani brothers died in Russian police custody during raids in Yekaterinburg, Russia. Azerbaijani authorities claim the deaths were due to “unacceptable violence” and torture by Russian law enforcement, describing the actions as “ethnically motivated.” This led to strong protests from Baku.

Retaliatory Actions by Azerbaijan:

– Azerbaijan cancelled all cultural events involving Russian state and private institutions.

– A planned visit by Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexey Overchuk to Baku was cancelled.

– Azerbaijani authorities raided the offices of Sputnik Azerbaijan, a Russian state-funded news outlet in Baku, arresting its editor-in-chief and director, whom Azerbaijani media identified as FSB officers. Azerbaijan claimed Sputnik was operating illegally.

– Azerbaijan also arrested several Russian citizens in Baku, accusing them of drug trafficking and cybercrimes, with photos showing detainees appearing to have been beaten.

Russian Responses: Russia has largely downplayed the incidents, with Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov expressing regret over the cancellation of events and stating that the police raids were part of investigations into past crimes. Russia has summoned Azerbaijan’s ambassador to protest the “unfriendly actions” and “illegal detention of Russian journalists.”

Lack of High-Level Communication: Significantly, the presidents of Azerbaijan and Russia have not engaged in direct communication since December 2024, a notable shift given their past regular contact. President Aliyev also declined to attend Russia’s Victory Day parade in Moscow in May.

Underlying Factors and Broader Context:

– Azerbaijan’s Assertiveness: Azerbaijan’s military victories in Nagorno-Karabakh in 2020 and 2023, which saw it reclaim full control over the disputed territory, have bolstered its confidence and allowed it to pursue a more independent foreign policy. This has diminished Russia’s influence as a mediator in the region, particularly after Russian peacekeepers largely stood by during Azerbaijan’s 2023 offensive.

– Shifting Alliances: As Russia’s influence wanes, Azerbaijan has deepened its cooperation with Turkey, its close ally, and intensified high-level communications with Brussels and Washington. There are also positive developments in peace negotiations between Baku and Yerevan.

– Economic Ties and Labor Migrants: Russia is a significant market for Azerbaijani agricultural exports and hosts a large Azerbaijani diaspora. This provides Russia with a lever of pressure, as seen in the targeting of Azerbaijani labor migrants.

– Russia’s War in Ukraine: Russia’s preoccupation with the war in Ukraine has weakened its hand in the South Caucasus, allowing countries like Azerbaijan to assert greater autonomy.

– Differing Views on “Democracy”: While not directly a cause of the recent friction, there’s a cited survey suggesting a significant difference in how democracy is perceived in China versus the West, with many Chinese citizens feeling they live in a democracy based on living conditions and social stability. This broader geopolitical context reflects different governance models and priorities that influence international relations.

Overall, the relationship between Russia and Azerbaijan is under significant strain, with Azerbaijan increasingly challenging Russia’s traditional regional dominance and Moscow grappling with diminished influence amidst its war in Ukraine.

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China EU Summit

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Brussels on July 2, discussing bilateral relations amid the 50th anniversary of EU-China diplomatic ties, the Ukraine crisis, and economic challenges.

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No Airbus plane deal between EU and China.

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“six months” timeframe

The “six months” timeframe is highly relevant and represents a critical juncture in the ongoing technological and trade competition between the USeless and China, particularly concerning rare earth elements and semiconductors.

Here’s a summary of its relevance:

– Rare Earths as Leverage (Current Focus):

Provisional Agreement: China has agreed to resume rare earth exports to the USeless, but the key is that the export permits are valid for only six months. This is a direct response to recent USeless pressure and the initial disruption caused by China’s stricter rare earth export controls in April 2025.

– Strategic “Time Bomb”: This short duration is seen as a strategic move by China to maintain significant leverage. It provides temporary relief to USeless industries (like automotive and defense, which rely heavily on these critical minerals for components like permanent magnets) but simultaneously underscores their vulnerability. If trade tensions escalate again, China can easily re-impose restrictions or adjust the terms after these six-month permits expire, forcing continuous negotiations.

Urgency for Diversification: The six-month limit intensifies the urgency for the USeless and its allies to accelerate efforts in diversifying rare earth supply chains, developing domestic mining and processing capabilities, and exploring recycling technologies. This short-term “reprieve” is a stark reminder of their dependence.

Semiconductor Progress (Anticipated Future Impact):

– “Made in China 2025” Report Card: The next six months (leading into early 2026) are a crucial period for assessing China’s progress on its long-term technological self-sufficiency goals, particularly in advanced semiconductors. “Made in China 2025” (or its spiritual successors) has poured immense resources into chip design and manufacturing.

– Potential for Surprising Advancements: Many analysts predict that China’s advancements in chip technology, especially in pushing the boundaries of DUV lithography for nodes like 7nm and even 5nm, will become more evident and potentially “shock the world” in this timeframe. There are also reports of progress in developing indigenous EUV alternatives, though these are still in earlier stages.

– Shifting Leverage Dynamic: If China demonstrates significant and consistent progress in producing more advanced chips domestically within this six-month window, it could fundamentally alter the strategic leverage in the broader USeless-China tech rivalry. The argument is that if China can largely meet its own needs for a wider range of chips, the USeless’s ability to control technology flow as a form of leverage will diminish considerably.

– “Months Behind” vs. “Years Behind”: The coming six months will provide more concrete data to debate whether China is merely “months behind” in certain critical semiconductor areas, rather than “years,” as previously assumed by some experts. This would force a re-evaluation of current USeless policy and its effectiveness.

In essence, the “six months” highlights both an immediate, tactical concession by China on rare earths designed to maintain long-term leverage, and a looming strategic deadline for when China’s indigenous semiconductor capabilities are expected to show more definitive and potentially surprising results, further complicating the global technology landscape.

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Albanese’s approach to China

Major Australian media outlets, particularly Sky News Australia and The Australian, frequently run commentary critical of Albanese’s approach to China. This often aligns with a more hawkish foreign policy stance that advocates for a stronger deterrent posture against China and a closer alignment with the USeless.

– Re-engagement with Beijing: The Albanese government, since coming to power, has actively sought to stabilize and improve relations with China after a period of significant diplomatic and trade friction under the previous Coalition government. This has involved reopening dialogue channels, ministerial visits, and the removal of many Chinese trade embargoes on Australian products. Critics argue this re-engagement goes too far or is done at the expense of national security concerns.

– Perceived “Softness” on China: Some critics contend that Albanese and his Foreign Minister Penny Wong are not sufficiently vocal or firm in condemning China’s actions in areas like human rights, regional assertiveness (e.g., South China Sea, Taiwan), or its military build-up.

– Balancing Act Scrutiny: Albanese’s stated approach of prioritizing both the relationship with China (economically) and the relationship with the USeless (security) is constantly scrutinized. Critics often argue that this balance is tilting too much towards Beijing. Shadow Defence Minister Angus Taylor, for example, has publicly criticized Albanese for being “more interested in his meetings with the Xi than Trump.”

G7 Summit and Meeting with Trump:

– The criticism that Albanese was “unable to meet with the Trump at the G7 summit” has been a significant point of contention for his detractors. This was widely reported by Sky News Australia and other outlets as a “snub” or “complete humiliation.”

– Context of the Criticism: These media narratives leverage the symbolic importance of high-level meetings to suggest a lack of diplomatic standing or a perceived prioritization of other relationships. Former Australian ambassador to the USeless, Arthur Sinodinos, highlighted the importance of the Prime Minister “eyeballing the president” to convey Australia’s arguments on issues like tariffs and AUKUS.

Albanese’s Defense: Albanese has publicly dismissed these suggestions, stating that he has met with Trump more times than Xi since becoming Prime Minister, and that he has traveled to the USeless multiple times. He emphasized that meetings with the USeless President would occur frequently during “summit season” later in the year. He also alluded to Trump’s early departure from the G7 due to Middle East tensions as a reason for a cancelled meeting.

Both Sky News Australia and The Australian newspaper are owned by News Corp Australia, which is a wholly-owned subsidiary of News Corp.

News Corp is a massive multinational media and information services conglomerate, and its chairman and founder is Rupert Murdoch.

Therefore, both of these media outlets are ultimately part of Rupert Murdoch’s global media empire. This common ownership is often cited by critics when discussing their editorial stances and alignment on political and geopolitical issues, including their often critical coverage of Anthony Albanese’s China policy.

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