Category: Dedollarization

The Big One: A Look-Ahead for Powell River

Current Date: June 22, 2025

Scenario: A magnitude 9.0+ earthquake on the Cascadia Subduction Zone, occurring roughly 100-200 km offshore.

What to Expect Immediately (First Minutes to Hours)

Violent, Prolonged Shaking (3-7 minutes): This will be unlike anything most people have ever experienced. It will be strong enough to cause significant structural damage to buildings not built to modern seismic standards, collapse older structures, and cause widespread non-structural damage (contents falling, walls cracking).

Action: DROP, COVER, HOLD ON. Get under sturdy furniture. Stay away from windows. If outdoors, move to an open area away from buildings, power lines, and trees.

Sudden Land Subsidence: New research indicates that a Cascadia earthquake could cause 0.5 to 2 meters (1.6 to 6.6 feet) of sudden land sinking along the coast, including potentially in Powell River. This means areas previously considered above sea level could instantly become inundated.

Implication: This will worsen coastal flooding and may impact infrastructure (like docks, lower roads) before the tsunami even arrives.

Widespread Infrastructure Failure:

Power Outages: Expect complete and prolonged power outages, likely lasting weeks to months. This impacts everything: heating, cooling, refrigeration, charging devices, traffic lights.

Communication Blackout: Cell towers may fail due to power loss or structural damage. Landlines may be cut. Internet will be down. Emergency radio will be critical, but reception could be spotty.

Water and Sewer Outages: Water mains and sewer lines will rupture, leading to loss of potable water and sanitation issues. Boil water advisories will be immediate and long-lasting.

Gas Leaks & Fires: Ruptured gas lines are a major cause of post-earthquake fires. With water systems down, firefighting capacity will be severely limited.

Roads & Bridges: Roads will be cracked, buckled, or blocked by debris, landslides, or liquefaction. Bridges, especially older ones, may collapse or be severely damaged. Powell River’s connection to the rest of the mainland (via ferry) and other communities could be severed.

Landslides and Liquefaction:

Slopes: Pre-existing unstable slopes will almost certainly fail, causing widespread landslides. Homes at the base or on these slopes will be at extreme risk. Even previously stable slopes could fail.

Flat, Coastal Areas: Areas built on loose, saturated soils (like river deltas or reclaimed land) are highly susceptible to liquefaction, causing ground to lose bearing capacity, leading to buildings sinking, tilting, or collapsing.

Tsunami Arrival (Minutes to Hours): Powell River is in Tsunami Notification Zone E (Strait of Georgia). While outer coast communities will experience a tsunami much faster (15-30 minutes), waves will propagate through the Strait of Georgia, arriving in Powell River within hours (perhaps 3-6 hours, but this is an estimate and could vary).

Tsunami Heights: While generally lower than the open coast, significant wave heights are still possible, especially compounded by land subsidence.

Action: If you are near the coast and feel strong shaking, evacuate to high ground immediately as soon as the shaking stops, without waiting for an official warning. Follow designated tsunami evacuation routes. Do not return until an “all clear” is issued by authorities, as subsequent waves can be larger.

Post-Event Reality (First Days to Weeks)

Self-Sufficiency is Paramount: You will be largely on your own for at least 72 hours, potentially much longer. Emergency services will be overwhelmed, focused on critical life-saving efforts.

Think Ahead: Do you have a 7-day (ideally 14-day) emergency kit with food, water (4 litres per person per day), first aid, medications, warmth, and a hand-crank radio? Do you have a “grab-and-go” bag ready?

Limited Access to Information: Without power or internet, official information will be scarce. Local radio (if operating on generators) and potentially emergency vehicle broadcasts will be key.

Think Ahead: Do you have a battery or hand-crank radio tuned to local emergency frequencies? Have you identified a reunification plan for your family if separated?

Damaged or Uninhabitable Homes: Many homes will be unsafe to occupy due to structural damage, landslide risk, or post-subsidence flooding.

Think Ahead: Where will you go if your home is damaged? Do you have out-of-area contacts? Is your vehicle ready with a full tank of gas?

Psychological Trauma: The sheer scale of the event, loss, and disruption will cause widespread psychological distress, PTSD, anxiety, and depression. This will affect individuals, families, and first responders for years.

Think Ahead: Be aware of this potential. Build strong community networks now. Support mental health services.

Economic Paralysis: Local businesses will be closed, supply chains severed. Gas, groceries, and other essentials will be scarce or unavailable. Unemployment will skyrocket.

Long-Term Recovery (Months to Years)

Massive Displacement: Thousands, if not tens of thousands, of people could be displaced from their homes for extended periods. This will strain housing resources across the province.

Protracted Rebuilding: Rebuilding infrastructure and homes will take years, possibly a decade or more. This will be hampered by:

Financial Limitations: Insured losses will be immense, and many will be under-insured or uninsured. Government compensation (DFA) will be limited and slow.

Supply Chain Issues: Getting materials, equipment, and skilled labour into the region will be a major challenge due to damaged transportation networks.

Permitting and Assessments: The sheer volume of damage assessments and building permits will create immense backlogs.

“Threat of Damage” Worsened: Areas with pre-existing geological instability will face even stricter building requirements, potentially deeming some properties permanently unbuildable or uninsurable. This will exacerbate the “threat of damage” problem into a permanent reality for those areas.

Economic Restructuring: Industries reliant on physical infrastructure (e.g., ports, resource extraction) will be severely impacted. The local economy will need to adapt.

Environmental Changes: Permanent land subsidence could lead to ongoing coastal flooding and salt-water intrusion in freshwater systems. Changes to the coastline will be long-lasting.

What People in Powell River Should Be Thinking Ahead About:

Radical Self-Reliance (Initially): Do not assume anyone will be there to help you immediately. Have a plan to be entirely self-sufficient for at least 7-14 days.

Water: Store ample water. Consider purification methods. Know where your main water shut-off valve is.

Food: Store non-perishable food for at least 7-14 days.

First Aid: A comprehensive kit, and training in basic first aid.

Power: Battery banks, solar chargers, hand-crank devices.

Warmth & Shelter: Blankets, sleeping bags. If your home is damaged, where will you go for immediate shelter?

Earthquake Insurance: If you don’t have it, strongly consider it, understanding the high deductibles. If you own a strata unit, understand your strata’s earthquake deductible and your potential share. If you already have it, review your policy to understand what’s covered (and what’s excluded, e.g., tsunami, landslide, or specific ground movement depending on your policy).

Property Vulnerability:

Slopes: If your home is on or at the base of a steep slope, understand the geological assessment of your specific property. What are the specific landslide risks?

Coastal Low-Lying Areas: If you are in a potential tsunami inundation zone or an area susceptible to liquefaction/subsidence, know your evacuation route and highest safe ground.

Older Homes: If your home was built before modern seismic codes (pre-1990s, especially pre-1970s), it’s more vulnerable. Consider professional seismic assessments and retrofits.

Community Preparedness: Get involved with local emergency preparedness groups. Understand the qathet Regional District’s emergency plans and notification systems.

Important Documents: Keep copies of essential documents (insurance policies, deeds, IDs, medical records) in a waterproof, easily accessible “grab-and-go” bag, or electronically on a cloud service.

Financial Preparedness: Have an emergency fund for deductibles and immediate needs. Diversify investments if possible.

Mental Preparedness: Talk to your family about what to expect. Understand that the psychological toll will be immense. Build social networks now.

The “Big One” will be a defining event for British Columbia. For Powell River, understanding this potential reality and preparing for it now is not about fear-mongering, but about responsible citizenship and the critical need to increase resilience in the face of an inevitable and overwhelming natural disaster. https://www.facebook.com/jeff.mah.5/videos/1061156525459470/?__cft__[0]=AZXM6jbXRkGQOheXM-ufnPGNKLqoYIegbgxsfaqE0gGnxjCYP5iV-BTMVUk-f_lWC94XEoB7f_mNLh3D5QrE3nU_A3YEQGBqEG0jWObkugot8r08jwG4VTS7Vx_hbTWlG4vQgaQAXzJjQhyaEp4iZeHALqGC3FmOe3zNUuTFr1-WRw&__tn__=%2CO%2CP-R

Pierre Poilievre’s stance on reducing immigration directly contrasts with the goals of the “Century Initiative.”

The Century Initiative is a Canuck non-partisan organization that advocates for increasing Canuckstan’s population to 100 million people by the year 2100.

They explicitly state that achieving this goal will largely depend on sustained, strategic immigration. Their focus is on ensuring Canuckstan has the talent and people needed for long-term economic strength, innovation, a high quality of life, and global influence. They advocate for permanent resident admissions within a target range of 1.15% to 1.25% of Canuckstan’s population annually.

Rationale: They argue that Canuckstan’s aging population, low birth rates, and growing labor shortages necessitate significant population growth to maintain a robust economy, fund social services like healthcare, and ensure Canuckstan’s relevance on the international stage.

Pierre Poilievre’s Stance (Conservative Party):

Poilievre has stated that Canuckstan’s population growth is “out of control.” This is often linked to concerns about strains on infrastructure, housing affordability, and healthcare services that have not kept pace with rapid population increases.

Proposed Policy: The Conservative Party has pledged to cut permanent immigration levels to a “sustainable level” similar to the Harper government’s era (240,000 to 285,000 permanent residents between 2006 and 2016). This is a significant reduction from the Liberal government’s targets and certainly from the levels implied by the Century Initiative.

Context: His position aligns with a growing public sentiment, reflected in recent polls, that Canuckstan is accepting too many immigrants given the current housing and service challenges.

The Conflict:

The conflict is stark in terms of target numbers and underlying philosophies:

Population Targets: The Century Initiative aims for 100 million by 2100, which requires consistently high levels of immigration. Poilievre’s proposed cuts would significantly slow population growth, making the Century Initiative’s target effectively unreachable under such policies.

Immigration Levels: The Century Initiative’s recommended annual permanent resident intake (1.15% to 1.25% of population) translates to much higher numbers than Poilievre’s proposed 240,000-285,000 range. For example, at Canuckstan’s current population of 41 million, 1.2% would be around 492,000 immigrants, which is even higher than the recent Liberal targets before their announced cuts.

Drivers of Policy:

Century Initiative: Focuses on long-term demographic and economic projections, arguing for the necessity of population growth for Canuckstan’s future prosperity and global standing.

Poilievre/Conservatives: Emphasize immediate concerns about the capacity of Canuck infrastructure and services to handle rapid growth, suggesting a need to slow down to “catch up” on housing and services.

In essence, the Century Initiative sees large-scale immigration as a proactive strategy for Canuckstan’s long-term strength, while Poilievre views recent rapid population growth as a problem that needs to be brought under control, suggesting a more cautious and reduced approach to immigration levels. https://www.facebook.com/jeff.mah.5/videos/687097647286391/?__cft__[0]=AZXIC2kgtSw6-THhN-iPd9ASZv0i5gA-XFan1G3A4rpmzCNSr_4STWDPBf5G3lzyhA_m9AKfYvSihNPfmX27O64B0ufG9PqK7KJIUuoY1-_y0rcBSbbDg5Ce4CgJSn-ecsgbGXTXQLop9YBY-0C2boIIheDogzlGO0_J0kBe56ugPg&__tn__=%2CO%2CP-R

https://www.facebook.com/jeff.mah.5/videos/1059709152740868/?cft[0]=AZURwO_AEND5z1kuZn3BMov4g1-z2olvwAybR7ePRH11HryMyhN7gP1V-FIMtqSIZVzEpxZ1m-pZ0rTOHf-zwxpJfvIwlFFIP-Z_LXAe_YSGf6DwSxqhJ1uaEl__vsU_hZXiDyoH3_W15iuTdLfRMWVvQd1-53QMLjOYXvNenGclXg&tn=%2CO%2CP-R