June 14, 2025: Beijing Peace Negotiations between Afghanistan and Pakistan
Host and Mediator: China continued its prominent role in mediating the talks, underscoring its increasing influence in the region and its aim to fill a void in international mediation.
Purpose: The primary objective was to improve the strained relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan, which have been plagued by border disputes, cross-border attacks, and mutual accusations of harboring militant groups.
Key Discussion Areas and Agreements:
– Diplomatic Relations: Both countries officially agreed to reinstate full diplomatic ties and exchange ambassadors as soon as possible. This is a critical step towards normalizing their relationship, moving beyond the level of charge d’affaires. China explicitly welcomed and pledged continued support for this development.
– Economic Cooperation: Discussions centered on the expansion of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) to Afghanistan. This signifies a major push for regional connectivity, trade, and development, offering significant economic incentives for all parties involved, particularly landlocked Afghanistan.
– Security Cooperation: The delegations committed to cooperating in combating terrorism and addressing shared security concerns. This includes preventing external interference in regional affairs, a point China frequently emphasizes.
– Regional Stability: The overarching goal of the negotiations was to foster peace and stability across the region, creating a conducive environment for the development and revitalization of both Afghanistan and Pakistan.
– Future Engagements: The meeting also included discussions on a potential trilateral foreign ministers’ dialogue in Kabul. This further reinforces the commitment to a sustained diplomatic process and a collaborative approach to resolving ongoing issues and improving bilateral relations.
Significance:
This June 14th meeting highlights the sustained nature of China’s mediation efforts. It demonstrates that the agreements in May were not isolated events but part of an ongoing process of diplomatic engagement. China’s motivations remain clear: ensuring stability for its Belt and Road Initiative projects, particularly CPEC, countering extremist threats, and solidifying its position as a major regional and global power. The commitment to exchanging ambassadors and extending CPEC into Afghanistan represents tangible progress in these complex relationships.
Pakistan’s recent acquisition of advanced military hardware from China, specifically:
J-35 stealth fighters: Up to 40 units, making Pakistan the first international operator of China’s fifth-generation stealth fighter. Deliveries are expected to begin in August 2025, with Pakistani pilots already in training in China.
KJ-500 airborne early warning and control (AWACS) aircraft.
HQ-19 ballistic missile defense systems: Comparable to the US THAAD system, designed for high-altitude interception of ballistic missiles.
Speed of Acquisition: The rapid nature of the deal is attributed to the long-standing strategic partnership between China and Pakistan, China’s aggressive arms export strategy (especially for its first 5th-gen fighter export), Pakistan’s urgent modernization needs, a proven track record with Chinese systems, potential “discounted sales,” and pre-existing development and pilot training.
India’s Counter-Strategy: The acquisition poses a significant challenge to India’s regional air superiority. India is expected to respond by:
Accelerating its indigenous AMCA (Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft) fifth-generation fighter program.
Enhancing anti-stealth detection capabilities through VHF/UHF radars, Over-the-Horizon (OTH) radars, integrated air defense grids, and IRST systems.
Modernizing and expanding its existing air force assets (e.g., MRFA program, Tejas Mk-2, enhanced electronic warfare, long-range missiles).
Boosting its Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) systems (e.g., S-400, indigenous “Kusha”).
Pursuing strategic and diplomatic measures like technology partnerships and “Make in India” initiatives. It was affirmed that countering this is possible, as stealth is not invisibility, and a layered defense, numbers, training, and continuous R&D play crucial roles.
Implications for Other Countries and Geopolitics: The deal is seen as a strong precedent for other nations considering Chinese military purchases because:
It’s the first export of a 5th-gen fighter from China.
It offers advanced capabilities at a potentially lower price.
It provides a comprehensive package deal.
China is perceived as offering deals with fewer political conditionalities.
It allows for diversification of arms suppliers.
It serves China’s strategic interests in building influence. This deal signifies a deepening of the China-Pakistan “threshold alliance,” challenges Western arms hegemony, and reshapes regional and global power balances, contributing to a more multi-polar world. China’s growing role as a global security provider, impacting alliances and influencing the defense industrial base worldwide.
The second dam construction in Pakistan assisted by China. The Diamer-Bhasha Dam is a large, multi-purpose dam project under construction in Pakistan, located on the Indus River near Chilas, at the boundary of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Gilgit-Baltistan. It’s a significant undertaking aimed at addressing Pakistan’s growing water and energy needs.
Purpose and Benefits:
Water Storage and Irrigation: The dam is designed to store a significant amount of water, with a gross capacity of 8.1 million acre-feet (MAF) and a live storage of 6.4 MAF. This water will be used to irrigate 1.23 million acres of agricultural land, crucial for Pakistan’s agrarian economy. It will also help extend the lifespan of the downstream Tarbela Dam by reducing sediment deposits.
Hydropower Generation: It will have an installed capacity of 4,500 megawatts (MW), generating an estimated 18 billion units of clean, low-cost electricity annually. This is vital for addressing the country’s energy shortages.
Flood Control: The dam is expected to help control flash floods in the Indus River downstream, mitigating damage during high flow seasons.
Economic Prosperity: The project is anticipated to create job opportunities and boost agricultural productivity, contributing to economic growth in the region.
Key Features and Specifications:
Type of Dam: Roller-compacted concrete (RCC) gravity dam.
Height: 272 meters (892 feet), making it the world’s tallest RCC dam.
Reservoir: Gross capacity of 10 billion cubic meters (8.1 MAF), with a live storage of 7.9 billion cubic meters (6.4 MAF).
Spillway: Features 14 gates, each 11.5m x 16.24m.
Powerhouses: Two underground powerhouses, one on each side of the main dam, with a total of 12 turbines (375 MW each).
Project Status and Timeline:
Inception: The construction of the dam was first suggested in 1980, and the project was inaugurated in 1998.
Construction: Actual construction work commenced in 2020.
Estimated Completion: The project is currently scheduled for completion by 2028-2029. Construction is ongoing at 17 key sites, including diversion tunnels, coffer dams, and the dam pit.
A joint venture of China Power (Power Construction Corporation of China) and Pakistan’s Frontier Works Organization (FWO) was awarded the contract for the construction of the diversion system, main dam, and access bridge for the project. China Power holds a 70% share in this consortium.
Chinese engineers and workers are actively on site, contributing to the dam’s construction, and it’s considered a significant symbol of China-Pakistan cooperation, with its construction being part of the broader Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
Funding:
Estimated Cost: The total estimated cost of the project is around $14 billion (2013 estimate), with an updated figure of $8 billion for the dam itself and additional costs for the transmission line.
Financing Challenges: Historically, the project faced challenges in securing international funding due to its location in disputed territory.
Current Funding Strategy: Pakistan is pursuing various options for financing, including:
Issuing its first-ever green bond in 2021, which raised $500 million.
Seeking financial assistance from countries like Saudi Arabia (a request for $3.5 billion in concessional loans and equity investment).
Exploring the possibility of including the project in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
Funding from WAPDA’s existing tariff revenue from hydropower generation.
A public fundraising campaign was also initiated by a former Supreme Court judge, though it faced controversy regarding the amount raised versus advertising costs.
Construction Progress:
Active Work Sites: Construction work is currently underway on 17 key sites of the project simultaneously and at a good pace. This includes work on diversion tunnels, coffer (temporary) dams, the guide wall, the dam pit, and permanent access bridges.
River Diversion: The river diversion system is functioning satisfactorily, allowing the Indus River to bypass the main dam site, which is crucial for continued construction of the main dam structure.
Excavation: Excavation work on the dam’s abutment (the part of the dam that connects to the valley walls) is ongoing.
Permanent Access Bridge: The permanent access bridge downstream of the main dam has been completed.
Overall Progress (Contract MW-I): As of January 2025, the overall progress of Contract MW-I (which covers the main dam and associated structures) stood at 16.09 percent.
Timeline:
The project is currently scheduled for completion by February 2029.
There have been past efforts to accelerate the timeline (e.g., to 2026), but the latest official reports point to the 2029 target.
However, reports from December 2024 indicated a revised completion to December 2030, with financial and defect liabilities extending until December 2032, due to factors like delays in Karakoram Highway relocation, security concerns affecting night shifts, and revisions to the river diversion scheme.
Challenges and Issues:
Government Focus:
The Pakistani government continues to emphasize the critical importance of the Diamer-Bhasha Dam for the country’s water, food, and energy security.
Federal ministers have been directing officials to accelerate work and prioritize the project’s timely completion, especially in light of ongoing water shortages.
Cost Escalation: The estimated cost of the project has significantly increased, from Rs479 billion to Rs1.05 trillion (as of January 2025), a 119.21% surge. This is attributed to:
Exchange rate fluctuations: Rupee devaluation against the US dollar.
Revised design parameters: Based on updated seismic parameters recommended by the International Commission on Large Dams (ICOLD), requiring modifications to the main dam, diversion scheme, and hydro-mechanical works.
Enhanced security measures: Due to security incidents involving Chinese contractors and expatriates, leading to increased security deployments and the procurement of a helicopter for safe transport.
Interest during construction for the foreign component.
Protests by Affected Persons: There have been ongoing protests by people affected by the dam, particularly in the Diamer region of Gilgit-Baltistan. Their demands include: Provision of 80% royalty from Diamer-Bhasha Dam and 30% from Dassu Dam to Gilgit-Baltistan. Free electricity generated by the project to Diamer district and discounted rates for the rest of Gilgit-Baltistan. Full and fair compensation for acquired land and affected families. Provision of commercial and residential plots, and development of education, health, and sewerage projects. Jobs for locals at the dam project and regularization of contingent and daily wage workers. These protests have sometimes led to the shutdown of WAPDA offices and private contractor operations at the dam site. The government is engaging with these communities to address their grievances.
Resettlement and Environmental Impact: The project will affect several villages, displacing thousands of people and submerging agricultural land and historical rock carvings/petroglyphs. Compensation and resettlement efforts are ongoing, but have faced protests from affected communities demanding their rights and proper compensation.
Disputed Territory: The dam’s location in Gilgit-Baltistan is a disputed territory between Pakistan and India, which has historically made it difficult to secure international funding from institutions like the World Bank and Asian Development Bank.
Seismic Zone: The dam is located in a high seismic zone, raising concerns about its stability and potential for sympathetic tremors.
Local Disputes: There have been disputes between local tribes over compensation and between Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa over claims on royalty from the dam.
Despite these challenges, the Diamer-Bhasha Dam remains a crucial project for Pakistan’s long-term water and energy security.
This video provides an update on the construction progress of the Diamer Basha Dam project. Here’s a summary of the key points:
“Diamer Basha Dam Diversion Tunnel One,” the first tunnel constructed for the project, and shows the diversion of the Indus River from its original path.
It explains that before the main dam is built, focus is placed on diversion tunnels, diversion canals, left and right abutments, and upstream and downstream cofferdams.
Ongoing construction activity with vehicles at the site.
It features the construction of the main dam’s walls.
The slogan “Power the World” of Power China, a Chinese state-owned company involved in the project, is visible.
The video acknowledges the challenging working conditions in the mountainous region and harsh weather, with work continuing in multiple shifts even at night.
Currently, work is underway at 17 different sites of the Diamer Basha Dam.
The video shows the city of Chilas, which is expected to be submerged due to the dam.
It also mentions a tragic accident where a vehicle fell into the river, resulting in fatalities, and notes the support provided by the dam’s companies in such situations.
The hoisting of the Pakistani flag at the construction site evokes patriotic feelings.
The video then shifts to the main dam area, located approximately 1.5 to 2 kilometers away, showing the designated “Dam Area 16” which will be under the dam’s reservoir in the future.
It introduces the newly constructed RK Cache road, which will soon be used to divert traffic from the existing route that is close to the Indus River.
The “Refri Road,” an access road built by WAPDA for the local community, connecting the lower dam site to the Raikot Bridge, spanning about 104-105 kilometers.
The importance of the dam for storing the Indus River’s water, which currently goes to waste, especially during the flood season in April, and how the Diamer Basha and Mohmand dams will be multipurpose projects beneficial for the economy.
Reports indicate that Azerbaijan is poised to significantly expand its procurement of JF-17 Block III fighter jets from Pakistan, with speculation mounting about a deal for 40 units valued at approximately $4.2 billion. If confirmed, this would represent Pakistan’s largest-ever fighter jet export and a major boost for the JF-17 program, jointly developed by Pakistan and China.
While initial reports in early 2024 suggested a contract for around 16 JF-17 Block III aircraft for $1.6 billion, more recent information points to a potential increase to 40 jets. Although there has been no official confirmation from the Azerbaijani, Pakistani, or Chinese governments regarding the expanded order, Azerbaijan has already officially inducted 16 JF-17 Block III fighters in 2023. President Ilham Aliyev personally inspected one of the newly delivered jets, highlighting the strategic importance of the acquisition.
Key aspects of this development include:
JF-17 Block III Capabilities: The Block III variant is a 4.5-generation fighter, offering significant upgrades over previous versions. It features an Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar (reportedly the KLJ-7A), an enhanced electronic warfare suite, air-to-air refueling capability, improved maneuverability, extended range, and enhanced combat capabilities. It can be armed with various weapons, including beyond-visual-range (BVR) missiles like the PL-15. The aircraft also incorporates more composite materials for better stealth characteristics and boasts a fully digital cockpit.
Azerbaijan’s Military Modernization: This acquisition is a crucial part of Azerbaijan’s ongoing military modernization efforts, aimed at replacing its aging fleet of Russian-origin MiG-29s and diversifying its defense procurement away from a heavy reliance on Russia. Azerbaijan has also been acquiring military equipment from Israel, upgrading its Su-25 attack aircraft in Turkey, and modernizing its aviation with Italian C-27J Spartan military transport aircraft.
Strategic Implications: The deal deepens the growing defense partnership between Pakistan, Azerbaijan, and Turkey, often referred to as “The Three Brothers.” This collaboration reflects a shifting geopolitical landscape in the South Caucasus, with Azerbaijan seeking to bolster its air power amidst regional tensions, particularly with Armenia. Pakistan views this as a significant step in expanding its defense exports and solidifying its role in the global arms trade. The JF-17, being an affordable yet high-performance option, is attractive to nations seeking modern capabilities without the constraints of Western or Russian export restrictions.
Comparing the prices of the JF-17 Block III and the Su-25 reveals a significant difference in their cost, reflecting their distinct roles, capabilities, and generational differences.
JF-17 Block III Price
The JF-17 Block III is a modern 4.5-generation multi-role fighter jet. Its unit cost can vary depending on the specific deal, including armaments, spare parts, training, and support agreements.
Estimated Unit Cost: Reports suggest the flyaway cost of a JF-17 (earlier blocks) is around $25-32 million. However, when considering a comprehensive deal that includes all associated support, the unit cost can rise significantly.
Recent Deals:
A reported $1.6 billion deal for an unspecified quantity of JF-17 Block III aircraft for Azerbaijan suggests a higher per-unit cost when considering the full package. If it was for 16 aircraft, it would be around $100 million per unit, though this is likely to include a lot of additional equipment and support.
Another potential deal for 12 JF-17 Block III fighters for Iraq was speculated to be around $664 million, which would work out to approximately $55 million per unit, a figure that likely includes a comprehensive support package.
The rumored $4.2 billion deal for 40 JF-17 Block III jets for Azerbaijan would average around $105 million per unit, again, indicative of a package deal with extensive support, training, and weaponry.
Sukhoi Su-25 Price
The Su-25 “Frogfoot” is a Soviet-era, robust ground-attack aircraft (close air support). Its production mostly ended a while ago, so “new” purchases are rare, and prices often refer to upgrades or sales of existing inventory.
Estimated Unit Cost: Original production Su-25s were estimated to cost $11-15 million.
Upgrades: Upgrading an existing Su-25 to a more modern variant (like the Su-25SM) can add several million dollars to the cost, potentially bringing it to no more than $20 million for an upgraded unit.
Resale/Second-hand: Prices for used or refurbished Su-25s would vary widely based on condition, upgrades, and the seller.
JF-17 Block III is significantly more expensive than the Su-25. This is expected, as the JF-17 Block III is a much more advanced aircraft. It’s a true multi-role fighter designed for modern air combat, incorporating advanced avionics, radar, and beyond-visual-range (BVR) missile capabilities.
The Su-25 is a specialized ground-attack aircraft. It is known for its durability, heavy armor, and ability to operate from rough airstrips, focusing on providing close air support. It lacks the air-to-air combat capabilities and advanced features of a modern fighter.
Context of the deals matters. The “unit price” in large defense contracts often includes much more than just the aircraft itself, encompassing training, spare parts, maintenance support, and integrated weapon systems, which can inflate the per-unit cost considerably.
Azerbaijan’s acquisition of the JF-17 Block III signifies a move towards a more capable and versatile air force, shifting from its older, specialized Su-25s (which are also being upgraded) to a platform that can handle a broader range of air combat and strike missions.
China is assisting Pakistan in the construction of the Mohmand Hydropower Project. The project is a significant undertaking, designed to generate 800 MW of electricity, provide 300 million gallons of drinking water per day to Peshawar, and offer flood control and irrigation benefits.
While there have been previous reports and aspirations for an earlier completion, the current projected completion date for the Mohmand Dam is 2026-27. Construction work is progressing on various key sites, including the spillway, cofferdams, diversion tunnels, and powerhouse.
China’s involvement in the Mohmand Hydropower Project, through companies like China Energy Engineering Corporation and China Gezhouba Group Corporation, is part of broader cooperation between the two countries, including projects under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Recent reports suggest that China has been accelerating its efforts on the dam, highlighting its strategic importance for Pakistan’s water security and energy needs.
The completion of the Mohmand Dam could reduce terrorism in Balochistan by improving various aspects of life for the local population.
Improved Water Resources and Irrigation: The dam will provide crucial water resources for irrigation, which can lead to increased agricultural productivity and food security in the region.
Increased Electricity: The hydropower generated by the dam will supply electricity, which can support economic activities and improve the quality of life.
Better Livelihoods and Economic Development: By providing consistent water for agriculture and electricity for various uses, the dam’s benefits are expected to lead to better livelihoods and overall economic development in the region. This improvement in living conditions and opportunities can reduce the desperation and grievances that sometimes fuel terrorist activities.
俾路支斯坦独立运动 Report on the Balochistan Independence Movement
Executive Summary
The Balochistan independence movement is a complex and multifaceted issue driven by historical, political, and economic grievances. This report examines the key factors fueling the movement, recent developments, Pakistan’s response, China’s strategic dilemma, international reactions, and potential future scenarios. The report concludes with recommendations for addressing the conflict and achieving long-term stability in the region.
1. Introduction
The Balochistan independence movement seeks to achieve autonomy or independence from Pakistan, driven by a combination of historical, political, and economic factors. This report provides a comprehensive overview of the movement, its grievances, recent developments, and the broader geopolitical implications.
2. Historical Background
Historically, Balochistan’s status before the partition of India saw it as a collection of tribal territories with the Khanate of Kalat enjoying significant autonomy under British rule. The Khanate initially declared independence in 1947 but acceded to Pakistan in March 1948, which sparked the first Baloch insurgency.
3. Key Grievances
3.1 Economic Exploitation
Despite being rich in natural resources like minerals and gas, the Baloch population reports marginalization and lack of benefit from this wealth, leading to underdevelopment and high poverty rates in the region.
3.2 Political Marginalization
Baloch nationalists feel politically excluded and oppressed by the central government in Islamabad, which they perceive as dominated by the Punjabi elite.
3.3 Human Rights Abuses
There are numerous allegations of enforced disappearances, extrajudicial killings, and torture by Pakistani security forces in Balochistan.
4. Movement Dynamics
The movement involves both armed struggle and political activism. There have been at least five major uprisings, with the latest starting in 2004. Key militant groups include the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), Baloch Liberation Front (BLF), and Baloch Republican Army (BRA).
5. Recent Developments (2023-2025)
5.1 Frequent Attacks (2023-2024)
Throughout 2023 and 2024, numerous smaller attacks involving IEDs, ambushes, and targeted killings were reported, targeting security personnel, police, and military in districts like Kech, Panjgur, Mastung, Quetta, Awaran, Khuzdar, and Dera Bugti.
5.2 Surge in Attacks (August 2024)
The BLA claimed a significant increase in attacks targeting police stations, railway lines, and highways, leading to clashes with security forces.
5.3 Targeting Chinese Interests (October 2024)
An attack near Karachi airport reportedly injured Chinese nationals, reflecting Baloch groups’ opposition to CPEC.
5.4 Suicide Bombing (November 2024)
A suicide bombing at Quetta Railway Station caused many casualties, with the BLA reportedly claiming responsibility.
5.5 Attacks on Security Forces (January 2025)
The BLA claimed responsibility for an attack on a Frontier Corps check post in Kalat and an explosive-laden vehicle attack in Turbat, both resulting in casualties.
5.6 Hijacking of Jaffar Express (March 2025)
The BLA-Jeeyand faction hijacked a passenger train in the Bolan Pass, leading to a standoff and multiple fatalities. There were also reports of an attempted attack on the Gwadar Port Authority Colony and an assault on the PNS Siddique naval air station in Turbat.
5.7 Killing of Passengers (April 2025)
Gunmen killed bus passengers, identified as being from Punjab, near Noshki, with the BLA claiming responsibility for this and similar incidents targeting those from outside Balochistan.
5.8 “Operation Herof 2.0” (May 2025)
The BLA launched a large-scale operation with coordinated attacks across over 50 locations in Balochistan, targeting military and intelligence sites, police stations, and infrastructure in areas including Kech, Panjgur, Mastung, and Quetta. Specific incidents included an assault in Mangocher, a bomb attack on a Coast Guard vehicle in Gwadar, an IED blast in Kachhi District, and a gas pipeline explosion in Dera Bugti.
5.9 School Bus Attack (May 21, 2025)
A suicide bomber targeted a school bus in Khuzdar, resulting in the deaths of five children and injuring 38 others. No group has claimed responsibility yet.
5.10 Declaration of Independence (May 14, 2025)
Baloch nationalist leader Mir Yar Baloch declared the symbolic independence of the Republic of Balochistan and urged India and the UN to recognize it. Five days later the group was crushed by the Pakistani forces.
6. Pakistan’s Response & Propaganda
6.1 Military Crackdowns
Heavy-handed operations (e.g., “kill-and-dump” campaigns) have failed to quell insurgency, instead radicalizing more Baloch youth.
6.2 Blame-Shifting
Pakistan frequently accuses India of funding separatists (e.g., ISPR’s claim about the Khuzdar school bus attack), though evidence is scarce. India denies involvement but maintains rhetorical support for Baloch rights.
6.3 CPEC Security
Pakistan has raised special forces (e.g., the “Balochistan Security Army”) to protect Chinese interests, further militarizing the region.
7. China’s Strategic Dilemma
7.1 Economic Stakes
CPEC’s success hinges on Balochistan’s stability. Gwadar Port is critical for China’s energy security and BRI ambitions.
7.2 Security Concerns
Attacks on Chinese nationals (e.g., October 2024 Karachi airport incident) pressure Beijing to bolster Pakistan’s counterinsurgency efforts.
7.3 Diplomatic Tightrope
China officially backs Pakistan’s territorial integrity but privately urges Islamabad to address Baloch grievances to safeguard investments.
8. International Reactions
8.1 India
Baloch leaders seek Indian recognition, but Delhi treads cautiously to avoid provoking Pakistan/China. Some analysts suggest covert support to destabilize CPEC.
8.2 UN/West
Limited engagement due to Pakistan’s strategic importance (e.g., counterterrorism partnerships, China’s UN veto power). Human rights organizations (e.g., HRW, Amnesty) condemn abuses but lack leverage.
8.3 Iran
Faces spillover from its own Baloch insurgency (e.g., Jaish al-Adl), complicating regional dynamics.
9. Future Scenarios
9.1 Continued Insurgency
The movement’s fragmentation (e.g., BLA vs. BRA infighting) may weaken cohesion but prolong violence.
9.2 Pakistan’s Options
Escalated military action risks backlash; political reforms (e.g., resource-sharing, autonomy) are unlikely under current leadership.
9.3 Internationalization
If Baloch factions unite and gain recognition (e.g., via diaspora lobbying), pressure on Pakistan could mount.
10. Conclusion
The Balochistan conflict is a tinderbox of ethnic nationalism, economic injustice, and geopolitical rivalries. While the May 2025 independence declaration is symbolic, it underscores the movement’s resilience. The path forward hinges on:
Pakistan’s willingness to address Baloch grievances politically.
China’s ability to balance economic interests with conflict mediation.
International actors’ readiness to challenge Pakistan’s narrative and prioritize human rights.
Without meaningful dialogue, Balochistan’s cycle of violence and repression will persist, with regional stability hanging in the balance.
Attempted Secession: On May 14th, the leader of the Balochistan separation movement, Mir Yar Baloch, announced the formation of the Balochistan Republic, seeking international attention. However, within five days, the “republic” collapsed due to swift action by Pakistani forces.
Balochistan has historically been a sensitive region within Pakistan, marked by challenging terrain and a diverse population. A history of British colonial influence, which divided Baloch territories, and the exclusion of Baloch people from Pakistan’s power structures. Despite being rich in natural resources, the region suffers from poverty.
External Influences: India has long supported Baloch separatist movements through intelligence networks and funding. The flow of weapons into the region during the USeless war in Afghanistan and support from the Afghan Taliban.
Pakistan’s Response: Pakistani military and security forces responded rapidly, launching operations to dismantle extremist camps and apprehend key figures.
Consequences of Secession: If Balochistan had successfully seceded, Pakistan would have lost access to the Arabian Sea, becoming landlocked. This would have significant geopolitical and economic repercussions, destabilizing the region.
