Outer Manchuria

Outer Manchuria, also known as Russian Manchuria, refers to a vast region in Northeast Asia that is now part of the Russian Far East but historically formed part of Manchuria, the traditional homeland of the Manchu people.

Early History and Chinese Rule:

– The region was inhabited by various indigenous Tungusic peoples (like the Sushen, Mohe, and later Jurchens) for millennia.

– Chinese dynasties, including the Qin, Han, Jin, Sui, and Tang, exerted varying degrees of influence and control over parts of Manchuria, particularly its southern areas, through military commanderies and tributary relationships.

– The kingdom of Bohai (698-926 CE), composed predominantly of Goguryeo and Tungusic-speaking peoples, ruled over all of Manchuria, including what is now Outer Manchuria.

– Later, the Khitan-led Liao dynasty and the Jurchen-led Jin dynasty also controlled parts of Manchuria.

– The Yuan dynasty (Mongol Empire) occupied the entire region, making it the Liaoyang province.

– The Ming dynasty, which overthrew the Yuan, also had influence.

– The Qing dynasty, founded by the Manchu people from this region, maintained administrative control over Manchuria. However, the Qing largely discouraged Han Chinese settlement in these northern areas to preserve the Manchu character, and their authority in Outer Manchuria was often tenuous, particularly over the more remote northern tribes.

Russian Expansion and Annexation (17th-19th Centuries):

– From the mid-17th century, the Russian Empire began its expansion into the Far East.

– Initial conflicts with Qing China led to the Treaty of Nerchinsk in 1689, which defined the Sino-Russian border along the Stanovoy Mountains and the Argun River. This treaty recognized the disputed northern part of Outer Manchuria as Qing territory.

– However, Russia continued its expansionist ambitions. By the mid-19th century, with Qing China weakened by internal rebellions (like the Taiping Rebellion) and external pressures from Western powers (the Opium Wars), Russia seized the opportunity.

– The Treaty of Aigun in 1858, signed by Russia and a local Qing official without full central government authorization, ceded the territory north of the Amur River (Priamurye) to Russia. It also declared the land east of the Ussuri River and south of the Amur (Primorskaya) as a Sino-Russian condominium. The Qing initially refused to recognize this treaty.

– Two years later, amidst the chaos of the Second Opium War (Arrow War), Russia, though not a direct belligerent, acted as an intermediary and leveraged the situation. The Convention of Peking in 1860 affirmed the Treaty of Aigun and further ceded the entire Pacific coast to the Korean border (Primorskaya) to Russia, as well as the island of Sakhalin. This effectively transferred approximately 910,000 square kilometers (350,000 sq mi) of land, collectively known as Outer Manchuria or Russian Manchuria, to the Russian Empire, and cut off China’s direct access to the Sea of Japan.

Subsequent Developments:

The newly acquired Russian territories included key modern cities like Vladivostok, Khabarovsk, and Blagoveshchensk.

While China officially settled outstanding boundary issues with Russia in the 1991 Sino-Soviet Border Agreement and the 2001 Sino-Russian Treaty of Friendship, some in China still regard Outer Manchuria as a territory unfairly taken.

The historical significance for China lies in the loss of a vast territory that was part of its traditional homeland and its access to the Sea of Japan, a sensitive point in its modern history, often viewed through the lens of “unequal treaties.” https://www.facebook.com/jeff.mah.5/videos/987299476648010/?__cft__[0]=AZVORqZyKlhTnjVFCApbAspKq9zDeoq9xcS8b8fij2AcII5UTMSyQH8GjPLUtugS8Yel5VTFefQ-Gvg1QVs9fM0ksVl85EqSO8FnMVcyskZkaFlZCBduOI2PJzg_EmW8ruKQMFUZNIqsCfk6ZeXzP5-R5Dj0He8qlAcK2sS9Scxf0Q&__tn__=%2CO%2CP-R

BRICS summit in Rio de Janeiro

Both Xi and Putin are reportedly skipping the upcoming BRICS summit in Rio de Janeiro, scheduled for July 6-7. This marks a significant development, especially for Xi, as it would be his first absence from a BRICS summit in over a decade.

Vladimir Putin:

ICC Arrest Warrant: The primary reason for Putin’s absence is the outstanding arrest warrant issued against him by the International Criminal Court (ICC) in March 2023. The ICC accuses him of the war crime of deporting Ukrainian children. Brazil is a signatory to the Rome Statute, which obliges it to detain individuals wanted by the ICC who enter its territory.

Putin is expected to participate in the summit via video link, with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov representing Russia in person. Putin similarly skipped the 2023 BRICS summit in South Africa due to the same ICC warrant.

Xi Jinping:

“Scheduling Conflict”: Beijing has officially cited a “scheduling conflict” as the reason for Xi’s non-attendance. Chinese Premier Li Qiang is expected to lead the Chinese delegation instead.

Diplomatic Discomfort/Snub: However, Brazilian officials and media reports suggest other underlying reasons, including:

– Modi’s State Dinner Invitation: Some speculate that a state dinner invitation extended to Modi by Brazil’s President Lula da Silva may have influenced Xi’s decision. The optics of Modi and Lula in the spotlight could make Xi appear as a “supporting actor,” which might be a concern for a leader accustomed to being center stage.

– Recent Meetings with Lula: Chinese officials also point to Xi’s two recent meetings with President Lula within the past year (November 2023 and May 2024) as a reason why another in-person engagement is less necessary.

Brazil’s Stance on BRI: There’s also a sense of unease in Beijing over Brazil’s decision not to endorse China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

Focus on SCO Summit: Diplomatic sources suggest Beijing might be more focused on the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit, which China plans to host later this year.

Significance:

– Strain within BRICS: Xi’s expected absence, especially if due to diplomatic considerations, could signal rising tensions and a potential fraying of unity among the older core members of BRICS, particularly as India and China increasingly seek to define their global roles.

– Brazilian Frustration: Brazilian officials are reportedly displeased with Xi’s decision, viewing it as a diplomatic slight, especially after Lula’s “gesture of goodwill” visit to Beijing in May.

– Putin’s Continued Isolation (Physical): Putin’s continued physical absence from international gatherings due to the ICC warrant highlights the ongoing legal implications and international pressure he faces.

Overall, the absences of both Xi and Putin at the upcoming BRICS summit are noteworthy and suggest complex diplomatic dynamics and geopolitical considerations at play within the expanding bloc. https://www.facebook.com/jeff.mah.5/posts/pfbid0VvqWpDLuzxGcq2YV6mZmg2SccpRWPoG39HRJksucDh9rJ2mz3V9bPmTz6mcWjpMBl?__cft__[0]=AZUwKHPZYiRUt6YMNE7s37mVvQayT7BY8dap3zBe1vOUmQZufgKXBOv61jmxp0HvWWSqJwIhaQgJKFkE30251B5RP0FKJ2xxE63vZYYSFdThcY3txFAWoE61Qbi7D8PHK8jBVpH9rH8Bc3E_Q-yISmVU&__tn__=%2CO%2CP-R

Russia’s unexpected decision to increase tariffs on Chinese goods

Russia’s unexpected decision to increase tariffs on Chinese goods, despite the previously strong trade relationship between the two countries.

Russia has increased tariffs on Chinese furniture hardware from zero to 55.65%. This is significantly higher than the 10% increase applied to similar European products. The new tariffs are also retroactive to 2021.

Increased Scrap Fees on Automobiles In October, Russia announced a significant increase in automobile scrap fees, ranging from 70% to 85%, particularly for foreign car brands. This is notable given that China is Russia’s largest automobile importer, having exported 544,000 vehicles to Russia in 2023 alone.

Reasons for the Tariff Increases:

Increased Government Revenue Tariffs can boost government income, which is crucial for Russia during wartime to alleviate financial burdens.

Protection of Domestic Manufacturing Russia aims to prevent over-reliance on Chinese goods and protect its local industries from being squeezed out by foreign products.

China’s reaction to tariffs: On the surface the higher tariff have created new trade tensions. However, there isn’t a strong public outcry or formal objection from China. Some sources suggest that China has instructed local businesses to “fully assess the potential impact” and adjust their pricing strategies or promote localization in foreign markets, indicating a more pragmatic and adaptive approach rather than direct confrontation.

China’s economic support for Russia’s wartime economy: Many sources strongly suggest that China’s economic activities provide crucial, if not vital, assistance to Russia’s wartime economy. This is not necessarily a direct result of accepting the tariffs, but rather a consequence of the broader shift in their trade relationship.

Market and Inputs: China has become Russia’s most important economic partner, acting as a key market for Russian energy exports (oil, gas, coal) and providing critical imports that Russia can no longer obtain from the West due to sanctions. This includes consumer goods, cars, and, significantly, dual-use items (items with both commercial and military applications) such as microelectronics, semiconductors, and machinery critical for Russia’s defense industry.

Sanctions Evasion: China is assessed to be acting as a “proxy jurisdiction” for Moscow to evade Western sanctions, with Russian entities finding willing partners in China to purchase necessary goods and equipment. Without China’s cooperation, Russia would struggle to finance the war or secure resources for military operations.

Trade Volume: Bilateral trade between Russia and China has surged to record levels since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, more than doubling since 2020. This growth has outpaced China’s trade with most other countries.

Currency Shift: The Chinese yuan has become increasingly prominent in the Russian economy, with nearly 90% of transactions reportedly settled in yuan and rubles. This helps Russia circumvent restrictions on using dollars and euros.

Strategic Ambiguity: While China officially claims neutrality and avoids direct weapons shipments, its economic and political support is seen as undermining these claims. Beijing is perceived to be balancing its support for Russia with the desire to avoid full Western backlash and secondary sanctions.

In essence, while Russia’s imposition of tariffs on Chinese goods might seem counterintuitive given their close ties, China’s muted objection and continued, extensive economic engagement are interpreted by many as a de facto form of assistance to Russia’s wartime economy, enabling it to sustain its military efforts and mitigate the impact of Western sanctions. This relationship is often described as symbiotic but asymmetrical, with Russia becoming increasingly dependent on China. https://www.facebook.com/jeff.mah.5/videos/704738832146597/?__cft__[0]=AZVt-6HC88bHS9P6TjGkFvKXlMTV6AkjSXm9W8h8nUBH9nq0WLseKQEdk7WvSy_p5jHYPp_A0GvzmAG__rxGLihfS7Ww47aiGZcJcvdCC-FHMJ5QAR1-kKoszg38BavHw6fc4s2-8JS4u5wa9B0wFJ3_39lKwZV6SG517utz2FRoXw&__tn__=%2CO%2CP-R

China-Europe Railway Express (CR Express)

The China-Europe Railway Express (CR Express) has developed into a vast network connecting cities across Eurasia, serving as a crucial component of China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

Routing and Key Cities

The CR Express operates through a comprehensive network with three primary corridors, connecting over 100 cities in Asia and more than 200 cities in 25 European countries.

Western Route: This route facilitates exports from western China, often entering Kazakhstan via Alashankou or Khorgos in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. It then extends into Europe, with routes typically passing through Russia, Belarus, and Poland. Some trains also transit through Ukraine en route to Hungary. Key Chinese starting cities include Chongqing, Chengdu, and Xi’an.

Central Route: This route is dedicated to goods produced in central China and southern coastal provinces like Guangdong. It typically enters Mongolia through Erenhot in Inner Mongolia, crosses Russia, and extends to both Eastern and Western Europe.

Eastern Route: Primarily serving Chinese exports from coastal regions, notably Yiwu in eastern Zhejiang province. This route exits China through Manzhouli in Inner Mongolia, traverses Russia, and enters Europe via Belarus and Poland.

Major European destinations include Duisburg, Hamburg, and Madrid, among others.

Railway Gauge Issues

A significant challenge for the CR Express is the difference in railway gauges across countries:

Standard Gauge (1,435 mm): Used in China and most of Western Europe.

Broad Gauge (1,520 mm): Used in Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Mongolia, and some other countries that were part of the former Soviet Union.

This disparity necessitates transshipment (reloading containers) at border stations where the gauges change, such as at Alashankou and Manzhouli on the Chinese side, and at Brest (Belarus) and Malaszewicze (Poland) on the European side. While China has implemented measures like dynamic switching technology and increased reloading capacity at border ports to enhance efficiency, these gauge changes can still cause delays and logistical complexities. Expansion projects, such as those at the Malaszewicze terminal, are underway to address these infrastructure bottlenecks.

Reception by Countries Involved

The CR Express has generally been well-received, as it offers a faster and more cost-effective alternative to sea and air freight for many goods, promoting trade and economic development.

Economic Impact: The railway has greatly impacted the economies of both China and Europe, boosting trade links and economic growth along the routes. It provides a stable and reliable supply chain, especially highlighted during disruptions to sea and air freight, such as during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Benefits for Participating Countries: Countries along the routes benefit from increased trade, job creation, and improved logistics. For instance, landlocked countries gain more direct access to global markets.

Challenges and Concerns:

Operational Problems: Despite improvements, the network faces issues such as congestion at key hubs (e.g., Małaszewicze), inconsistent customs procedures across different countries, and limitations in refitting capacity at land ports.

Geopolitical Risks: The long routes traversing multiple countries make the CR Express vulnerable to geopolitical tensions, which can disrupt the flow of goods. Recent events, such as expanded Russian customs checks on transit goods, have caused delays and increased costs.

Imbalance of Cargo: The railway is predominantly utilized for westbound Chinese exports, often resulting in empty trains returning to China, which impacts profitability and sustainability.

Subsidies: The CR Express has heavily relied on government subsidies for its operation and rapid expansion, indicating that its profitability level remains low without such support.

Despite these challenges, the CR Express continues to expand its reach and improve its services, aiming to be a key player in global shipping and a strategic link between continents.

China-Europe Railway Express (中歐班列)

Origins: The CR Express began in 2011 out of necessity for Chongqing, which faced logistics bottlenecks for its IT industry.

Route and Early Challenges: The initial route stretched 11,179 km from Chongqing through Xinjiang, Kazakhstan, and Russia, to Duisburg, Germany. It faced skepticism, with some dismissing it as uneconomical compared to sea or air freight.

Overcoming Obstacles: China addressed issues like Kazakhstan’s gauge changes with dynamic switching technology, balanced national interests by establishing a coordination committee, and offered subsidies to reduce costs.

Growth and Impact: By 2016, operations exceeded 1,700 trains annually. The pandemic in 2020 served as a turning point; with sea and air freight disrupted, CR Express’s point-to-point service became a stable alternative, with operations surging to over 12,400 trains.

Time and Cost Advantages: The CR Express significantly cuts transit times (16-18 days compared to 45 days by sea from Chongqing to Duisburg), offering over 60% time savings. While more expensive than sea freight, it’s considerably cheaper than air freight, making it ideal for time-sensitive, high-value goods.

Stability and Reliability: Unlike sea shipping, which is prone to weather, piracy, and canal blockages, CR Express boasts a 99% punctuality rate. It utilizes temperature-controlled containers for sensitive goods and employs multi-route contingency plans for geopolitical stability.

Current Status: As of 2024, CR Express has opened 100 routes, connecting 125 Chinese cities with 227 destinations in 25 European countries, with annual operations reaching 19,000 trains and carrying goods worth over $56.7 billion. https://www.facebook.com/jeff.mah.5/videos/514950638274964/?__cft__[0]=AZXN1mTa8_PEys8B2wwGJmZE3_Nf3ogb6aFC2PU29fxf_VTxKyRlAQhycyO5nxMFc6yVDoGtRuL-7V_wS7e7_olWx9da9n9rVtGDumveGt3ztKRb0LvSDID9sGJKrfaOunRLAJFnETfhyG5DU3DBJc7j9rlz6o4ACgUN0Rs4-kgqjA&__tn__=%2CO%2CP-R

Geopolitical and Economic Significance of the Moo (Kuskino)/Mokuawei Region

Report on the Geopolitical and Economic Significance of the Moo (Kuskino)/Mokuawei Region

Executive Summary

The Moo (Kuskino) region, historically known to China as Mokuawei, located in Russia’s Far East and encompassing Posi Bay (Zaliv Pos’yeta) and Zarubino Port, holds immense, yet largely untapped, geopolitical and economic significance. Despite possessing natural deep-water harbors with potential for all-weather operation, the area remains underdeveloped due to a complex interplay of historical grievances, strategic anxieties, and economic considerations. For China, these ports represent a vital gateway to the Sea of Japan, offering transformative potential for its landlocked northeastern provinces. For Russia, however, the strategic implications of full development and Chinese access present significant challenges to its security and regional control.

Area Overview and Geographic Advantages

The Moo (Kuskino) region is strategically situated in Russia’s Hasan District, remarkably close to the Chinese border city of Hunchun. While a direct border crossing to the region is nearby (approximately 4 km to the general “Moo” area), the crucial connection between Hunchun and Zarubino Port is approximately 50 kilometers.

The area boasts two natural deep-water harbors:

Posi Bay (Залив Посьета): A vast and deep water body capable of accommodating large vessels.

Zarubino Port: Located in close proximity to the Chinese border, offering direct access for trade.

Both ports possess the inherent potential, with the aid of icebreakers, to function as year-round, ice-free ports, a significant advantage in the often-frozen northern latitudes. This makes them exceptionally valuable for maritime trade and logistics.

Historical Context and Chinese Aspirations

The historical backdrop of the region is critical to understanding its current significance. China lost this territory, along with Vladivostok and other vast lands, to Tsarist Russia through the unequal Treaty of Beijing in 1860. This historical context fuels China’s enduring interest in regaining effective access to the Sea of Japan for its northeastern provinces (Heilongjiang and Jilin), which are currently landlocked. These provinces desperately require a direct, efficient maritime outlet to facilitate trade with East Asian neighbors like Japan and South Korea, bypassing lengthy and costly overland routes or congested Chinese southern ports.

Russia’s Reluctance and Strategic Concerns

Despite the clear economic potential, Russia has historically been reluctant to fully develop and open these ports for significant Chinese use. This stems from a multi-faceted set of strategic concerns:

Territorial and Security Sensitivity: Russia views its Far East territories with deep historical and security sensitivity. Granting extensive foreign access or control over critical infrastructure so close to its border is perceived as a national security risk, particularly given a history of territorial disputes and anxieties.

Demographic Concerns (“China Threat”): There is an underlying fear within Russia that significant Chinese investment and economic migration into the sparsely populated Far East could lead to a demographic imbalance, potentially challenging Russian sovereignty or control in the long term.

Economic Disparity in Benefits: Russia perceives that the primary economic beneficiaries of fully developed and Chinese-accessed ports would be China’s economy, rather than its own. Russia has shown a preference for maintaining the status quo or pursuing development that primarily benefits its own internal economic and strategic objectives, rather than empowering a potential competitor.

Maintaining Vladivostok’s Prominence: Russia prefers to consolidate its maritime power and economic activity in its established port of Vladivostok, which serves as the headquarters of its Pacific Fleet and a key military and commercial hub. Full development of Posi Bay and Zarubino Port for Chinese benefit might dilute Vladivostok’s strategic importance.

Stalled Cooperation and Future Outlook

Efforts to foster cooperation in the region have largely stalled. A 2002 Chinese proposal to lease the Moo area for international port development was rejected by Russia. Similarly, a reported 2016 initiative for joint Sino-Russian construction to enhance Zarubino Port’s capacity and open new international routes has not seen substantial progress.

The future of the Moo (Kuskino)/Mokuawei region and its valuable ports remains suspended in a complex geopolitical standoff. While the economic imperative for China to access these ports is undeniable, Russia’s deep-seated security, historical, and economic considerations present significant barriers. Any future significant development or expanded access would likely require a fundamental shift in Russia’s strategic calculus, possibly under duress or as part of a much broader, mutually beneficial geopolitical realignment. https://www.facebook.com/jeff.mah.5/posts/pfbid02DTnEENTWx77pBoqPdVY9NXc9h8DjQQk26uHGzj1JrBovqG5XkJwAQbmx3AJxNKayl?__cft__[0]=AZXt9F2aU1iiP-J6Rr-kDYO-GN0kaqWbe4dDecV892ymGBqZ0K68j3GRHClz8oODA8N2NkYtqHfRhd9SSoJlIgobN180fWSa5KdxBadroclAVNJ3tyNDuK7NF5V6sjgZlGQjTngTjhUbkzqqlG7voQJ9UK8xO39wRRtnekLdXziMyA&__tn__=%2CO%2CP-R